Scenarios and Responses to Future Deep Oil Spills: Fighting the Next War

Section 1. Ecosystem Modeling

Modeling the impacts of DWH and IXTOC-I using Atlantis to understand cross-trophic level

including fishing and longer-term climate variability.

Section 2. Future Scenarios

In this section, a realistic suite of potential future deep spills, based on current and projected

regions of oil drilling, will be selected and analyzed. These scenarios will consist of

combinations of different locations (e.g., west, east and southern Gulf of Mexico), with differing

oil types and sub-surface oceanography. A number of papers in this section will consider

differing physics and chemistry of the blowout, surface and sub-surface distribution predictions

and degradation of oil, potentials for formation of oiled marine snow, and biological impacts.

Section 3. Evaluating Response Techniques for Future Spills

What scientific questions to responders need to have answered? How did various response

techniques (burning, booming, surface and sub-surface dispersant application, sand berms,

freshwater flooding, direct surface and sub-surface collection) work, and how can these

techniques be improved and optimized for systematic application? What would responders do

differently in future blowout scenarios? Can these studies add anything to the Net

Environmental Benefit Analysis performed by and necessary for the industry and response

communities?

Section 4. Summary

What we know now that we did not know then (e.g., DWH), what are the new paradigms, how

we might respond differently, unresolved and unanswered scientific questions, thoughts on

policy changes and appropriate regulatory requirements on the industry. "Lessons learned"

from previous deep spills and ensuing research.

.