Climate Modelling: Philosophical and Conceptual Issues

1. Introduction; Elisabeth A. Lloyd and Eric Winsberg .- Section 1: Confirmation and Evidence .- 2. The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We're Not Wrong?; Naomi Oreskes .- 3. Satellite Data and Climate Models Redux .- 3a. Introduction to Chapter 3: Satellite Data and Climate Models; Elisabeth A. Lloyd .- Ch. 3b Fact Sheet to "Consistency of Modelled and Observed Temperature Trends in the Tropical Troposphere"; Benjamin D. Santer et al. .- Ch. 3c Reprint of "Consistency of Modelled and Observed Temperature Trends in the Tropical Troposphere"; Benjamin D. Santer et al. .- 4. The Role of 'Complex' Empiricism in the Debates about Satellite Data and Climate Models; Elisabeth A. Lloyd .- 5. Reconciling Climate Model/Data Discrepancies: The Case of the Trees That Didn't Bark; Michael Mann .- 6. Downscaling of Climate Information; Linda O. Mearns et al. .- Section 2: Uncertainties and Robustness .- 7. The Significance of Robust Model Projections; Wendy S. Parker .- 8. Building Trust, Removing Doubt? Robustness Analysis and Climate Modeling; Jay Odenbaugh .- Section 3: Climate Models as Guides to Policy .- 9. Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World; Reto Knutti .- 10. Uncertainty in Climate Science and Climate Policy; Jonathan Rougier and Michel Crucifix .- 11. Communicating Uncertainty to Policy Makers: The Ineliminable Role of Values; Eric Winsberg .- 12. Modeling Climate Policies: A Critical Look at Integrated Assessment Models; Mathias Frisch .- 13. Modelling Mitigation and Adaptation Policies to Predict their Effectiveness: The Limits of Randomized Controlled Trials; Alexandre Marcellesi and Nancy D. Cartwright.