Forecasting Catastrophic Events in Technology, Nature and Medicine

 

List of used symbols and abbreviations

1

Introduction

2

Analysis of current state of forecasting objects and phenomena

 

2.1

Problem statement

 

2.2

Current state of the problem

 

3

Specification of problems solutions

3.1

General statements

3.2

Forecasting tool

3.3

Time series forecasting

3.4

Forecast model development

3.4.1

Development of the analytical expression of a forecast model..

3.4.2

Instability compensation of  forecasting mechanical systems resource

 

3.4.3

Evaluation of reliability of the mechanical systems resource forecast

3.4.3.1

Correlation method                                                                               

3.4.3.2

Evaluation of statistical significance of a forecast model

4

Application of the developed forecasting methodology in various spheres of human activity

4.1

Resource forecasting in technology

4.1.1

State of the forecasting problem in technology

4. 2

Forecasting  the resource of large-scale products using a centrifugal pump as an example

4.3

Forecasting the resource of small-scale products using a hydro turbine as an example

4.3.1

Derivation of the analytical expression for the "membership function"

4.3.2

Determination of normative boundaries of the linguistic variable a _COND  

4.3.3

Evaluation of criticality degree of the turbine condition

4.4

Forecasting  individual  resource of the  aircraft engine

 

4.5

Forecasting  individual resource of  the cutting tool

4.5.1

General  statement

4.5.2

Monitoring the state of the cutting tool according to  the sound generated by the cutting process

4.5.3

Adaptive control of cutting conditions based on individual resource  forecast of  the cutting tool

4.5.3.1

General statements

4.5.3.2

Algorithm of adaptive control of the cutting process

4.5.3.3

Hardware and software system of the cutting process adaptive control

4.6

Forecasting in medicine

4.6.1

Subject of research and research procedure

4.6.2

Results of research and their assessment

4.6.2.1

Short-term forecasting

4.6.2.2

Long-term forecasting

4.7

Earthquake prediction

4.7.1

roblem statement

4.7.2

Initial data

4.7.3

Methodology for preparing initial data for forecasting

4.7.4

Forecasting Method

4.7.4.1

The forecasting of the moment of the occurrence earthquake and its epicenter's coordinates

4.7.4.2

Earthquake strength forecasting

4.7.5

Results

4.7.5.1

The verification results of forecasting methods

4.7.5.1.1

Earthquake forecast verification near Hokkaido

4.7.5.1.1.1

Verification earthquake date prediction

4.7.5.1.1.2

Verification prediction of the earthquake epicenter coordinates

4.7.5.1.1.3

Verification prediction of the earthquake strength

4.7.5.1.2

Earthquake prediction verification in the area of Fukushima

4.7.5.1.2.1

Verification earthquake date prediction

4.7.5.1.2.2

Verification prediction of the earthquake epicenter coordinates

4.7.5.1.2.3

Verification prediction of the earthquake strength

4.7.6

The approbation results of the prediction method

4.7.6.1

Earthquake predicting time

4.7.6.2

Prediction of the earthquake epicenter coordinates

4.7.6.3

Predicting the strength of a ripening earthquake

5

Conclusion

6

References