Iran's Nuclear Program: A Study in Proliferation and Rollback

CHAPTER 1PROLIFERATION, SANCTIONS AND ROLLBACK: A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH1The Puzzle of Iran's Proliferation: Optimists vs. Pessimists 2Rolling Back Iran's Nuclear Program? Sanction Advocates vs. Sanction Skeptics6Iran as a Non-Unitary Actor: The Negotiated Political Order 9Methodology and Structure12CHAPTER 2THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION AND THE BOMB: QURAN MEETS REALISM                                                                                             16The Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic: The High Cost of Exporting the Revolution                                                                                                                                                  17The Quranic Way Of War: Is There Room For Nuclear Weapons?                                      28Bushehr and Beyond: Building a Case for Nuclear Weapons33CHAPTER 3RAFSANJANI'S NUCLEAR TAKEOFF: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WEAK NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME46Hiding in Plain Site: The Legitimate Infrastructure of an Illicit Program 47Building its Own Scientific Cadre: Iran as a Nuclear Science Beacon to the World? 57The Pakistani Connection: Making the Dream of a Muslim Bomb a Doable Reality? 61Shopping in the A. Q. Khan Nuclear Bazaar: the Centrifuge Blueprint Purchase66Beyond the "Khan Bazaar": Making Pakistani Proliferation Official? 72The North Korean Connection: Shopping For Missiles and More 76Evading the Nonproliferation Regime: Complexity and Dissimulation84

CHAPTER 4KHATAMI'S DIALOGUE AMONG CIVILIZATIONS AND THE NUCLEAR "DISAPPEARANCE ACT"100Khatami's Vision of Foreign Policy: The Meaning of the Dialogue among Civilizations100On Khatami's Watch: Speeding Up the Nuclear Project112The MEK's Disclosure and its Aftermath: Adjusting Tactics without Changing Strategy117Khatami: Out of the Loop or Part of the Deception Project?132Slow-Playing the West While Developing the Nuclear Project139CHAPTER 5AHMADINEJAD'S PRINCIPALIST DOCTRINE: SOVEREIGN RIGHTS TO A NUCLEAR ARSENAL156The Nuclear Project in Ahmadinejad's World View: Nuclear Equality for All168The NPT Dilemma in Tehran: To Stay or Exit? 172Security Council Resolutions: Raising the Cost of the Nuclear Project186CHAPTER 6    INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS: THE HIGH COST OF PROLIFERATION IN A NEOPATRIMONIAL REGIME209Sanctions and More Sanctions: Splitting the Iranian Elites                   209The 2009 Election As A Referendum On Sanctions: Why Did The Supreme Leader Side With Ahmadinejad?216Cutting to the Bone: The Smart Sanctions in Action 222The Weapons Program during Ahmadinejad's Tenure: Measuring Achievements behind the Rhetoric 230

CHAPTER 7THE ROUHANI PRESIDENCY: THE ROAD TO ROLLBACK 259From Smart Sanctions to Super Smart Sanctions: Putting the Squeeze on the Iranian Economy 260Sanctions and Anomie: A Threshold Condition for Delegitimization? 274
The Election of Hassan Rouhani: A Victory for the Rollback Lobby278
The Nuclear Program Assessed: The View of the International Atomic Energy Agency 283
Rouhani's Gamble: Banking on a Rollback and Normalization 287The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: The Parameters of the Rollback295The JCPOA's Prospects in Tehran: Renegotiating the Negotiated Political Order? 299CONCLUSION321APPENDICES 325