Probability in Social Science: Seven Expository Units Illustrating the Use of Probability Methods an

1. A Power Index for Individuals and Coalitions.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Coalitions and characteristic function of a game.- 1.3 Shapley value to a player.- 1.4 Shapley-Shubik power index.- 1.5 Some illustrative examples.- 1.6 Applications and other measures of power.- Exercises.- 2. How Many People Have Ever Lived?.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 A birth-death stochastic process.- 2.3 Determination of the mean population size.- 2.4 Fitting an exponential curve.- 2.5 Population data and results.- Exercises.- 3. Management of Research Projects.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Problem 1.- 3.3 Problem 2.- 3.4 Bibliographic notes.- Exercises.- 4. Stochastic Learning Models.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 The experiment and the model.- 4.3 Consequences of the model.- 4.4 Extensions and further reading.- Exercises.- 5. Glottochronology.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 A "death" process for words.- 5.3 Comparing cognates in two languages.- Exercises.- 6. Probability Models for Mobility.- 6.1 The basic BKM Markov model.- 6.2 The Stayer-Mover model.- 6.3 Further modifications.- Exercises.- 7. Recall From Memory.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 The model.- 7.3 Outline of the analysis.- 7.4 The derivation of Pn(t).- 7.5 Final remarks and additional references.- Exercises.- Postscript..- Index. 115.