Modeling and Analysis of Conventional Defense in Europe: Assessment of Improvement Options

Rationale and Structure of the Workshop on 'Long-term Development of NATO's Conventional Forward Defense'.- I Basic Premises for the Evaluation.- The Nuclear Relationship: Conventional Defense and Nuclear Posture in the Strategy of Deterrence.- Criteria for the Evaluation of Conventional Forces and Quantification.- II Conceptual Approaches to the Assessment of Alternatives.- Game-structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning.- Assessing Alternative Strategic Concepts.- System Dynamics as a Conceptual Framework for Long-term Defence Planning Initiatives.- III Analysis of Improvement Proposals.- Analyzing Alternative Concepts for the Defense of NATO.- On Reactive Defense Options - A Comparative Systems Analysis of Alternatives for the Initial Defense against the First Strategic Echelon of the Warsaw Pact in Central Europe.- Some Long-term Trends in Force Structuring.- IV Assessment Group Summaries.- Military Rational and Operational Robustness: The Impact of Emerging Technology and Experimental Tactics on the Future of Infantry.- Politico-Military Assessment.- Technology Implications.- Economic Implications, Cost and Manpower.- Assessment Methodology and Modelling.- Workshop Participants.