Making Essential Choices with Scant Information: Front-End Decision Making in Major Projects

PART I: INTRODUCTION Decisions Made on Scant Information: Overview; T.Williams Projects, their Quality at Entry - and Challenges in the Front-end Phase; K.Samset PART II: ALIGNING PROJECTS Implementing Strategy through Project Management: The Importance of Managing the Project Front-end; P. Morris Scenarios Planning; K. van der Heijden Up-front Assessment of Needs; P.Naess Front-end Alignment of Projects - Doing the Right Project; T.Cooke-Davies Using Soft Systems Methodology to Structure Project Definition; M.Winter PART III: GENERATING INFORMATION Optimism and Misrepresentation in Early Project Development; B.Flyvbjerg Decision Behaviour - Improving Expert Judgement; G.Kirkebøen Useful Heuristics; B.Scheibehenne& B.von Helversen Expert Judgment of Probability and Risk; G.Wright, F.Bolger,& G.Rowe Evaluation of Risks in Complex Problems; G.Parnell Obtaining Distributions from Groups for Decisions under Uncertainty; R.Cooke PART IV: ANALYSING INFORMATION Exploratory Quantitative Analysis of Emergent Problems with Scant Information; T.Bedford Analyzing Information: Techniques and Analyses; B.Andersen Parametric Analysis; P.Pugh PART V: MAKING DECISIONS The Impact of New Information; K.Sunnevaag The Complexity of Decision-making in Large Projects with Multiple Partners: Be Prepared to Change; R.Miller& B.Hobbs From Analysis to Decision - Economic Assessment; K.Hagen