Keynes on Uncertainty and Tragic Happiness: Complexity and Expectations

1. Introduction

 2.      Rationality as reasonableness: probability 

2.2 Economic expectations

                                    Reasonable and conventional expectations

                                    Speculators' knowledge

                        Ignorance and uncertainty

2.3 Reasonable economic policy. The reasonable justification of economic policy

            and intervention

2.4  Public institutions and limited knowledge

3.1 Probability: measurement and comparison

                                          The hypothesis of homogeneity

                             3.2  Joint judgements: direct and organic judgements

                                          Joint judgements of probability and the 'weight or argument',

                                          Joint judgements of probability and goodness: right conduct

                              3.3 Keynes's philosophy of measurement: intrinsically incommensurable magnitudes

3.4 From probability to economic magnitudes

                               The general price level

                               Utility

                  3.5 Incommensurability due to heterogeneity in dimension

                  3.6 Keynes's choice of the units of quantities and measure in economics

                               Units of time and comparison in time and space

3.7 The atomic hypothesis (the hypothesis of independence). Organic

                              interdependence. Wholes and parts.

3.8  'Complex or manifold' economic magnitudes

4. The methodology of critique: probability and classical economic theory. Logical fallacies: tacit introduction of hypotheses of homogeneity and independence

                  4.1 The methodology of critique of probability in A Treatise on Probability

4.2. The methodology of critique of Classical economic theory

                                     Critique of premises

                                     Search for tacit assumptions

                                     Types of tacit assumptions

                                     Characteristics of tacit assumptions

                                    The limits set to tacit assumptions

                                     What Keynes meant by a 'General Theory'

                                     The logical flaw in Classical economic theory: ignoratio elenchi

                                     The epistemological role of tacit assumptions in classical economic theory

1.  Uncertainty as Greek tragedy's legacy. Uncertainty as a tragic choice

5.1 Tragedy: main themes

5.2 Tragic moral dilemmas

5.3 Keynes's ethics of virtues

5.4 Pluralism and heterogeneity of ends and values

5.5 Irreducibility of heterogeneous plural ends and values: Keynes's pleasure,                          goodness and happiness

1. Happiness as Aristotelian tragic eudaimonia

6.1 The 'fragility of goodness'

6.2 The Greek legacy of the ethics of virtues against utilitarianism

6.3 Aesthetics as sublime: 'tragic beauty'. Pluralism in aesthetics, the beautiful and sublime

1. Moral and rational conflicts and dilemmas

7.1 Keynes on moral conflict and dilemmas

7.2 Keynes on rational conflict and dilemmas

1. International relations: complexity, interdependence and multilateralism. A tragic dilemma

8.1 Indian Currency and Finance (1913) and The Economic Consequences of the     Peace (1919)

8.2 The General Theory (1936) and international relations

8.3 The Commod Control Scheme (1938-42)

8.4 The interwar period: protection and trade as a means of exporting unemployment

8.5 The International Clearing Union, or on trade as exchange of goods against goods

8.6 Memorandum 'Overseas Financial Policy in Stage III' (1945)

8.7 Keynes, current global imbalances and the euro-zone project  

9.  Conclusions

Index